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Talk by Prof. Benjamin Monreal of the UCSB Physics department on March 16. I have only watched part of the talk, but I did flip through the slides, and this looks like a fairly reality-based assessment of what has happened and what might happen. (Update: Finished watching. I cannot recommend this strongly enough, especially the Q&A session toward the end. Actually, the whole thing is excellent; if you can find the time, watch it.)
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