Nemo, great find!!! I think it was about 6 months ago or so that I determined that a) hardly anybody spouting macro stuff had any clue, and b) my evaluation of their arguments was completely and utterly without any basis, and c) whom I believed was therefore entirely based on their presentation/delivery style, i.e. marketing and sales. So I swore off listening to *any* economic forecasts and observations. Personally I consider Elizabeth Warren particularly scary because she has a big name and title and speaks far too simplistically, but she’s far from the only one.
I keep in mind a comment from Charlie Munger who said something like it’s great to hire people to do things for you, but you have to have enough knowledge of the area to evaluate their work. Otherwise they can pull a fast one on you at any time. Which is what probably 99% of all economics commentators (on TV or blogs or wherever) do, intentional or not.
Anyway, this article does provide a few pointers to economists who might actually be useful to listen to. Thanks for that, maybe this will be worthwhile.
OMG so funny! Like I need a PhD in economics to balance my checkbook and avoid falling prey to salesmen punting snake oil and swampland. Because that’s all we’re really discussing in a nutshell.
I hadn’t heard of any of the bloggers she mentioned, was it just me or does anyone read/know about any of the bloggers mentioned in her paper? I think she tried to save face by picking the brightest (?), but certainly not those with the largest audience thereby doing her entire paper a real disservice. If the point was that bloggers without the education (BS, MS and PhD) and access to all the information will mislead the public, why not pick those with the largest audience and highlight instances where they have mislead their readers?
He begins by appealing to “open minded†consumers. He claims that macro economics is too difficult to understand, much less speak intelligently about, unless you have advanced training in the subject. He ends with actions for the consumers – realize they’re “being had,†ignore, well, pretty much everyone who speaks on the subject, and ask for a “higher bar†from… someone. And that’s it.
It’s an old sales formula: “That guy’s stuff is garbage. My secret ingredient – it’s pretty hard to understand but a battalion of the biggest brains on the planet worked for decades creating it! – is the key to the good stuff. Don’t listen to their spiel – after all they’re selling garbage! – come to my booth and you’ll get the Real Thing!â€
I’m underwhelmed with his presentation.
His arguments that only the big brained can comprehend macro-econ stuff and the comparison with seismology is disingenuous (as well as morbid). Seismologists do an admirable job of explaining the facts of their science to lay people. Most 9th graders in my school can talk about tectonic movements, subsidence and such and actually understand at a basic level what they’re talking about. The idea that the basics of macro-econ are unavailable in the same way is arrogant in the extreme, and probably false to boot.
There is a difference that matters in his comparison however. The seismologist doesn’t create earthquakes. The Central Bank does largely create the economy. The seismologist says “Here’s what I think is coming.†The Economist in the Central Bank says “Here’s what I think is coming and these are the actions I’m taking to make it happen.†Unlike the Seismological Society of America (http://www.seismosoc.org/) the CBs determinations and actions can literally determine whether my family will survive financially. His ghoulish comparison to natural disasters is more apropos than he knows, though not in the way he thinks. It’s more like the “seismologists†of 1000 years ago, aka, witch doctors/priests/whatever. They took credit for keeping the Big Fire Mountain God passive. The CB takes credit for keeping the economy going well. Neither should be surprised as they’re hauled to the mouth of the volcano when their “science†can’t explain, much less stop, the lava coming down on the village.
Nemo, great find!!! I think it was about 6 months ago or so that I determined that a) hardly anybody spouting macro stuff had any clue, and b) my evaluation of their arguments was completely and utterly without any basis, and c) whom I believed was therefore entirely based on their presentation/delivery style, i.e. marketing and sales. So I swore off listening to *any* economic forecasts and observations. Personally I consider Elizabeth Warren particularly scary because she has a big name and title and speaks far too simplistically, but she’s far from the only one.
I keep in mind a comment from Charlie Munger who said something like it’s great to hire people to do things for you, but you have to have enough knowledge of the area to evaluate their work. Otherwise they can pull a fast one on you at any time. Which is what probably 99% of all economics commentators (on TV or blogs or wherever) do, intentional or not.
Anyway, this article does provide a few pointers to economists who might actually be useful to listen to. Thanks for that, maybe this will be worthwhile.
OMG so funny! Like I need a PhD in economics to balance my checkbook and avoid falling prey to salesmen punting snake oil and swampland. Because that’s all we’re really discussing in a nutshell.
I hadn’t heard of any of the bloggers she mentioned, was it just me or does anyone read/know about any of the bloggers mentioned in her paper? I think she tried to save face by picking the brightest (?), but certainly not those with the largest audience thereby doing her entire paper a real disservice. If the point was that bloggers without the education (BS, MS and PhD) and access to all the information will mislead the public, why not pick those with the largest audience and highlight instances where they have mislead their readers?
But what do I know? I’m not a PhD.
He begins by appealing to “open minded†consumers. He claims that macro economics is too difficult to understand, much less speak intelligently about, unless you have advanced training in the subject. He ends with actions for the consumers – realize they’re “being had,†ignore, well, pretty much everyone who speaks on the subject, and ask for a “higher bar†from… someone. And that’s it.
It’s an old sales formula: “That guy’s stuff is garbage. My secret ingredient – it’s pretty hard to understand but a battalion of the biggest brains on the planet worked for decades creating it! – is the key to the good stuff. Don’t listen to their spiel – after all they’re selling garbage! – come to my booth and you’ll get the Real Thing!â€
I’m underwhelmed with his presentation.
His arguments that only the big brained can comprehend macro-econ stuff and the comparison with seismology is disingenuous (as well as morbid). Seismologists do an admirable job of explaining the facts of their science to lay people. Most 9th graders in my school can talk about tectonic movements, subsidence and such and actually understand at a basic level what they’re talking about. The idea that the basics of macro-econ are unavailable in the same way is arrogant in the extreme, and probably false to boot.
There is a difference that matters in his comparison however. The seismologist doesn’t create earthquakes. The Central Bank does largely create the economy. The seismologist says “Here’s what I think is coming.†The Economist in the Central Bank says “Here’s what I think is coming and these are the actions I’m taking to make it happen.†Unlike the Seismological Society of America (http://www.seismosoc.org/) the CBs determinations and actions can literally determine whether my family will survive financially. His ghoulish comparison to natural disasters is more apropos than he knows, though not in the way he thinks. It’s more like the “seismologists†of 1000 years ago, aka, witch doctors/priests/whatever. They took credit for keeping the Big Fire Mountain God passive. The CB takes credit for keeping the economy going well. Neither should be surprised as they’re hauled to the mouth of the volcano when their “science†can’t explain, much less stop, the lava coming down on the village.