Calculated Risk fear index

(Note 2009-04-10: This broke back in February when CR migrated to JS-Kit, which does not offer the visitor count. Now that hoocooda/node offers the visitor count again, I just need to update my scripts to slurp it. Soon…)

(Note 2009-04-12: Fixed.)

Calculated Risk is the best economics blog on the Internet.  The “regulars” have observed that the Visitor Count in the comments section tends to spike during times of financial distress.  Someone suggested using this indicator as an alternative to the VIX as a “fear index”.

So, I hereby present a chart of the Calculated Risk VIX (symbol: CRVIX ; hat tip Margin Call of Cthulhu).

Since the CRVIX oscillates (dilates and contracts… OK enough) periodically every day, a more relevant metric is the “relative” count, which I calculate simply by subtracting off the average for that time of day.  The calculation of the long-run average should become more accurate as I collect more data.

In the future, I plan to add more durations, moving averages, Bollinger bands…  I will update this post if and when that happens.

Daily chart

CRVIX daily chart

Weekly chart (“Sun” = midnight Sunday, etc.)

CRVIX weekly chart

Monthly chart

CRVIX monthly chart

3-month chart

CRVIX 3-month chart

1-year chart

CRVIX 1-year chart

2-year chart

CRVIX 1-year chart


Had I done a little searching first, I would have discovered that somebody beat me to it.  But I will probably keep going with my own implementation anyway.

3 comments to Calculated Risk fear index

  • jus me

    Thank you thankyouthankyouthankyou

  • trash1024

    A good start, CR. I think it may be even better if you put sp500 index along with your CRVIX index to indicate the accuracy of this index. Thanks.

  • EvilHenryPaulson

    Very cool Nemo, very cool.

Leave a Reply