Pred-election

Kentucky and Oregon hit the polls today.

Kentucky has just over 1.6 million registered Democratic voters; Oregon, just short of 827,000.  The polls put Clinton up 30 points in Kentucky, and Obama up 10 in Oregon.

I predict she does somewhat better than expected in both states, winning Kentucky by 35-40 points and losing Oregon by 5-10.  Assuming a 40% turnout in both states, she will pick up a net of 240,000 to 260,000 votes in Kentucky and only lose a net of 20,000 to 40,000 in Oregon.

In terms of popular vote total, this will put her solidly in the lead if you count Michigan and Florida, and bring her within 100,000 even if you ignore Michigan.

Intrade now gives her a 6.3 percent chance of being the nominee and a 4.7 percent chance of being our next President.

Update (Wednesday)

Well, I nailed the Kentucky results;  Hillary won by 36.2 percent and by 249,355 votes.  But I blew it in Oregon, where Obama won by 16 points and the turnout was 68 percent (!).  I guess I forgot that KY and OR are not so much different states as different planets…