So the West Virginia primary is tomorrow. Intrade gives Obama a 1.7% chance, which just goes to show that if you offer 60:1 odds on anything whatsoever, some idiot will take you up on it. (This is the same psychology that makes lotteries possible.)
Oh, what the heck. I pick up pennies on the street, so I went ahead and placed a bet here. Er, I mean, I would have placed a bet if it were legal in the U.S…
Only two questions remain:
- Will Obama beat the 40-point spread?
- Will racist crackers turn out in sufficient numbers to move the popular vote total? (“I heard Obama is a Muslim and his wife’s an athiest” — the Brits at the FT must be laughing their pasty white arses off)
My guess for #1 is “no” and for #2 is “it depends on whether you count Michigan and Florida”.
There are roughly 800,000 registered Democratic and independent voters in WV. It is hard to estimate turnout, but if we go with the Huntington Herald-Dispatch’s 40% figure, that would net her 125,000 and put her back in the popular vote lead. Assuming you count Florida. And, uh, Michigan. Look for the Clinton camp to emphasize this point after tomorrow.
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