Get the data

The derivative of an exponential is an exponential. So when the graph of total cases has the same shape as the graph of its day-over-day change (first derivative), and the same shape as the increase in day-over-day change (second derivative), and so on… We are in the exponential phase.

Click here for worldwide numbers. Click on a country for its details. The most interesting chart is “Daily New Cases”. When that levels off, the second derivative is zero and you are looking at an inflection point. But do remember the data are noisy, and also testing capacity can be increasing or saturated. Still this is the most informative chart.

Speaking of testing capacity increasing, click here for U.S. numbers. The reporting in the U.S. is almost entirely state-specific, so these folks are providing a useful service simply by adding it all up.

The U.S. tested over 22,000 people yesterday.

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