## Prediction Markets and the Kelly Criterion, Part 5

Perhaps the most famous proponent of the Kelly Criterion is Edward Thorp. He founded the M.I.T. Blackjack Club, published various papers on gambling and investing, and became both a professor of mathematics and a billionaire investor. The Kelly Criterion played a key role in most of these; he dubbed it “Fortune’s Formula”.

Thorp has authored […]

## Prediction Markets and the Kelly Criterion, Part 4

I changed my mind; I want to stick with my toy example just a little bit longer.

## Prediction markets and Brexit

My day job leaves little time for blogging, but I want to get this down before the whole topic is history.

The Brexit referendum begins in just a few hours. The Leave side was showing momentum prior to the murder of Jo Cox, but since then, pretty much all polls have been stuck at “too […]

## Cryptography Part 2: More rambling

Impossibility proofs have always fascinated me. Solving a problem is one thing. Failing to solve a problem is another. But there is something really special about proving nobody can solve it, ever, even if they are smarter than you. (Guess where I am going with this.)

The Delian problem is provably unsolvable. This was not […]

## Cryptography Part 1: Drunken rambling introduction

There is a series of posts forming in my head. I have no unifying theme nor particular audience in mind, so they will be even more rambling and incoherent than usual. Also I plan to have a drink or two before each just to complete the effect. You have been warned.

Let’s play a little […]

## Just what are you implying?

Tracy Alloway points us to another fun indicator:

Type JCJ GP on your Bloomberg.

Youâ€™ll get a chart that looks like this:

Itâ€™s the CBOEâ€™s S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index â€” based on options expiring in January 2011. Itâ€™s a basic measure of the correlation of stocks within the S&P 500, and you can see […]