Prediction markets and Brexit

My day job leaves little time for blogging, but I want to get this down before the whole topic is history.

The Brexit referendum begins in just a few hours. The Leave side was showing momentum prior to the murder of Jo Cox, but since then, pretty much all polls have been stuck at “too […]

Hillary (2)

OK, full disclosure: I do not like Hillary Clinton. Actually, I think the Clintons are sociopaths. Literally. Both of them.

Of course, I could be wrong. I am fully aware that most of what I believe is the result of deliberate propaganda. Just like most of what you believe.

That is why I look for […]

Hillary (1)

I read with some amusement the Boston Globe’s endorsement of Hillary Clinton. You would think a 1000-word endorsement by a major newspaper touting someone’s “experience” and “seasoning” would mention one or more of her accomplishments. Things she has actually, you know, done.

The New York Times endorsement makes an attempt, which winds up being even […]

Great Scots!

(I could really use some whiskey for this post)

So, the U.K.’s political/financial leadership — and their journalist microphones — are getting downright apocalyptic about the possible consequences of Scottish independence.

That alone would be enough to get me out voting “yes”, were I a resident of Scotland. Alas, I am not. But I do […]

Betting market manipulation?

In an excellent comment on my previous post, a forex trader from a non-trivial firm points out that, for the past several months, there has been a systematic difference between the odds on Intrade and every other betting market in the world. As I write, the difference stands at 12%; it has actually grown since […]

Why do the betting sites disagree?

As you can see here (for the next few hours, anyway) Intrade and Betfair are showing different odds on the U.S. Presidential election.

For example, as I write, Intrade is showing a bid/ask of $6.71/$6.72 for Obama, corresponding to a 67.1% to 67.2% probability.

Meanwhile, Betfair is showing a back/lay of 1.29/1.3. Take reciprocals to […]

An allegory

You are a teenager hosting a pizza party. Half an hour ago, your Mom called to order the pizza. Now the doorbell rings; it’s the pizza delivery guy; your Mom gives you $20 and tells you to go pay the man.

But it turns out she ordered $40 worth of pizza.

(yelling upstairs) “Hey Mom, […]

America 2011

Maybe it is just my imagination, but it seems like I have seen more stories like these lately:

Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness

Barnes v. State

If your empire were slowly collapsing, would you notice?

If you think Daylight Saving Time is annoying, imagine turning your clocks ahead 24 hours.

Back to the future

A more unorthodox approach has been proposed by the prime minister of Samoa, Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi, who hopes to shift his Pacific island-state westwards in December—to reappear on the other side of the international date […]

Article 1, Section 8

This piece by George Friedman, founder of Stratfor, has been making the rounds recently:

What Happened to the American Declaration of War?

Some are calling this a “must-read” for every American citizen. I agree.