Air Quality Part 1: Introduction

(related video)

When Northern California was burning, and I saw articles about the Bay Area’s air quality being “worse then Beijing”, I started to wonder… What does that mean? How is it measured? Can I measure it myself? Can I mitigate it?

This will be a short series of posts to do a brain dump […]

Yes, Virginia, the Bitcoin contango is a mystery

Lots of people are saying that massive contango in the Bitcoin futures is no surprise, because the contracts are cash settled.

For example:

“If you’re doing a cash-settled future, it’s just a bet,” said Aaron Brown, a former managing director at quant hedge fund AQR Capital Management who invests in the cryptocurrency and writes […]

Bitcoin futures

I hope I am not too immodest if I feel like my Bitcoin series has aged pretty well.

I do have a long-ish follow-up post percolating in my head, but I need some time to pull it together and research a few questions first (e.g. did anyone at the FT ever manage to make a […]

Well, now we know why Trump fired Comey

First Interaction

“Am I under investigation?”

“No, sir, you are not”

“Could you maybe let everyone know that?”

“I’ll see what I can do”

Second Interaction

“Look, if anybody on my team did something wrong, they need to be held to account. But I know I did nothing wrong, and you told me I am […]

Statement by President Donald J. Trump, Friday, July 6, 2018

My fellow Americans:

Our nation remains in a state of shock over Wednesday’s horrifying, horrifying attacks. We again offer our deepest sympathies to the families of the victims at this time of unimaginable grief.

But as our shock and horror turns into anger and determination, we know that we owe these families more than our […]

More election musings

A little closer to the bottom of the barrel…

Trump has shattered not one but both major parties. Looking forward to the internecine fighting. Mike Pence is going to be the most powerful VP since… Dick Cheney, I guess. Trump has essentially zero knowledge about the mechanics of government and legislation. Pence has been both […]

Election musings…

…in no particular order.

I wonder how much Hillary will be paid for her next speech. Can we please stop with the SHE WON THE POPULAR VOTE thing? If we had a popular vote system, (a) the candidates would campaign differently and (b) Republicans in states like CA and NY would actually have a reason […]

Betting site links: Election 2016

The betting sites react very quickly to new information, so they provide an excellent way to monitor events in real time.

Granted, in 2012 my favorite market (InTrade – RIP) was clearly manipulated. Had anyone been set up to perform the arbitrage, they could have pocketed a few million risk-free dollars on election day. […]

Trump, of course

Frankly, I do not understand why anyone other than cat ladies and doughy beta males would vote for anyone else.

OK OK I exaggerate. And anyway I would likely support anyone running against Hillary.

But I really am voting for The Donald with enthusiasm, and I want to take a moment to explain […]

A little FBI narrative

Quick little speculation before it all becomes history…

Comey’s letter was an extraordinary event. He is a smart guy, so he must have had an extraordinary reason. Sure, maybe he is just trying to sway the election. But (a) that would be counter to every aspect of his reputation and track record; and (b) he […]