Prediction Markets and the Kelly Criterion, Part 5

Perhaps the most famous proponent of the Kelly Criterion is Edward Thorp. He founded the M.I.T. Blackjack Club, published various papers on gambling and investing, and became both a professor of mathematics and a billionaire investor. The Kelly Criterion played a key role in most of these; he dubbed it “Fortune’s Formula”.

Thorp has authored […]

Prediction Markets and the Kelly Criterion, Part 4

I changed my mind; I want to stick with my toy example just a little bit longer.

Let’s change the game slightly. Instead of bringing your own bankroll, Casino Nemo gives you $1 with which to play. You can play as many rounds as you like, compounding your gains from round to round… For as […]

Prediction Markets and the Kelly Criterion, Part 3

Let me continue with my example from Part 2. Yes, this example is a toy. But I believe that studying simple cases can help to understand complex ones.

To recap, we have a game where you place a bet that you will win with probability \(p = \frac{2}{3}\) and that pays off 1:1. You have […]

Prediction markets and the Kelly Criterion, part 2

Welcome to Casino Nemo! You will like it here.

We have this game where you place a bet and then we roll a fair six-sided die. If it lands 1 or 2, we keep your bet; if it lands 3 through 6, you get back your bet times two (1:1 payoff).

As I said, you […]

Prediction markets and the Kelly Criterion, part 1

Last week, on PredictIt, the “Yes” contract for Amy Barrett becoming Trump’s Supreme Court nominee was trading at an implied probability of 40%. Based on my own reasoning, I estimated her chances at closer to 20%. Put another way, the “No” contract was offered for $0.60, while I thought it was worth $0.80. So I […]

Air Quality Part 2: The Dylos DC1100 Pro

The first gadget I purchased was this bad boy, the Dylos DC1100 Pro:

If I could have just one device for measuring air quality, this… Well, this would not be it. It does not measure CO2. It does not measure humidity. It does not measure temperature. It does not have a Web server […]

Air Quality Part 1: Introduction

(related video)

When Northern California was burning, and I saw articles about the Bay Area’s air quality being “worse then Beijing”, I started to wonder… What does that mean? How is it measured? Can I measure it myself? Can I mitigate it?

This will be a short series of posts to do a brain dump […]

Yes, Virginia, the Bitcoin contango is a mystery

Lots of people are saying that massive contango in the Bitcoin futures is no surprise, because the contracts are cash settled.

For example:

“If you’re doing a cash-settled future, it’s just a bet,” said Aaron Brown, a former managing director at quant hedge fund AQR Capital Management who invests in the cryptocurrency and writes […]

Bitcoin futures

I hope I am not too immodest if I feel like my Bitcoin series has aged pretty well.

I do have a long-ish follow-up post percolating in my head, but I need some time to pull it together and research a few questions first (e.g. did anyone at the FT ever manage to make a […]

Well, now we know why Trump fired Comey

First Interaction

“Am I under investigation?”

“No, sir, you are not”

“Could you maybe let everyone know that?”

“I’ll see what I can do”

Second Interaction

“Look, if anybody on my team did something wrong, they need to be held to account. But I know I did nothing wrong, and you told me I am […]